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Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

F048Informal - Causation

Also known as: Correlation Implies Causation, With This Therefore Because of This

Difficulty 3/10Medium-High LoadExtremely Common

Definition

Assuming that because two things occur together, one must cause the other.

Why Invalid

Correlation alone doesn't establish causation. Both could be caused by a third factor, the causal direction could be reversed, or it could be coincidental.

Edge Cases

  • Controlled experiments
  • Known causal mechanisms
  • Alternative explanations ruled out
  • Strong consistent correlations with temporal precedence

Examples

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  1. Identify correlation claim
  2. Check for causal mechanism
  3. Consider third variables
  4. Assess direction of causation
  5. Look for experimental vs observational data
  • Thinking all correlated things are unrelated
  • Not recognizing legitimate causal inferences from correlation
  • Ignoring strength of evidence
Post Hoc Ergo Propter HocArgument from IncredulityArgument from Silence

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