Seeking Disconfirmation

P029 • Epistemic Principles

Also known as: Falsification, Seeking Counter-Evidence

Difficulty 3/10Medium LoadRare

Definition

Actively search for evidence that would prove your belief wrong, rather than evidence that confirms it. Strong beliefs survive attempts at disconfirmation; weak beliefs crumble under scrutiny.

Confirmation bias leads us to notice, seek, and remember information that supports our existing beliefs while dismissing contradictory evidence. This creates false confidence in conclusions that may be incorrect. By deliberately seeking disconfirmation, you stress-test your beliefs and either strengthen them through surviving challenges or revise them based on better evidence. This is the core methodology of science and rational inquiry.

Examples

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Scope of Applicability

When forming or defending a belief about a consequential matter
When you notice yourself feeling very confident about a complex claim
When evaluating evidence for a decision with significant costs or benefits
When you're in disagreement with intelligent people who have access to the same information

Hazards

Seeking weak counter-evidence that's easy to dismiss (strawmanning your opposition)
Stopping the search as soon as you find any disconfirming evidence without weighing its strength
Applying asymmetric standards, demanding more from counter-evidence than supporting evidence
Treating absence of disconfirming evidence as strong confirmation without genuinely looking for it

Affirming the Consequent

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P005 Steelmanning

Return to 2.2 Representation of the Argument

Fallacy 3 of 3